GOVERNMENT TRUST INDEX
54
/ 100
โ ๏ธ CAUTION ZONE
๐ Education
72
CM Schools + UP Board Education reforms โ
๐ฅ Health
58
370 Arogya Mandirs, 7L Ayushman beneficiaries
๐๏ธ Infrastructure
42
4,000+ e-buses, Metro expansion coming
๐ก๏ธ Law & Order
52
Crime DOWN โ murder 491, snatching 5,406
๐ Welfare Schemes
48
ODOP centres 71, Kanya Sumangala Yojana delayed
๐ฟ Environment
38
AQI 186, Ganga improving
30-DAY TREND
โ -12%
vs Last Month ยท -12 pts (recovery underway)
๐ WHY IS TRUST LOW? - Root Cause Chain
Trust Index: 54 โ
โ
1-Yr Report Card Backlash
โ
Unfulfilled Promises (Kanya Sumangala Yojana โน0)
โ
Infrastructure Crisis (Water + Pipes)
โ
"UP Behaal" Opposition Campaign
250 CHCs upgraded under NHM, 370 Arogya Mandirs operational
+
Ganga ammonia stabilizing at 1.2 mg/L after Jan spike
+
Anti-encroachment drives displacing 27K+
๐ค AI Insight: Unlike a single-crisis scenario, this trust dip is a multi-factor systemic decline at the 1-year governance mark. The "UP Behaal" campaign by SP (150+ hoardings, #MissesAkhilesh trending) is amplifying real grievances โ especially Kanya Sumangala Yojana where zero payments have been disbursed in 12 months (source: Newslaundry, Feb 20, 2026). Healthcare is expanding: 250 CHCs upgraded under NHM, 370 Arogya Mandirs operational (51 new inaugurated), 7L Ayushman beneficiaries enrolled (source: UP Health Dept, Medical Dialogues). Transport is a bright spot: 4,000+ e-buses delivered making UP India's largest electric bus fleet (source: UPSRTC, Feb 2026). Crime data improving: snatching down from 6,493 to 5,406 cases, murder down to 491, burglary down 26%. Water infra stabilizing: Ganga ammonia at 1.2 mg/L after Jan spike, AQI improving to 186. Trust recovering from 48 low point โ immediate action on welfare payments can accelerate recovery to 62 by May 2026. Without intervention, trust may fall to 48 again.
๐ Sector-wise Trust Analysis
Education
72
โ
STABLE
CM Schools + UP Board Education reforms
Health
58
โ ๏ธ EXPANDING
250 CHCs upgraded, 370 Arogya Mandirs operational across 75 districts
Infrastructure
42
โ ๏ธ IMPROVING
4,000+ e-buses (India's largest fleet), Metro expansion coming
Law & Order
52
โ ๏ธ IMPROVING
Snatching down to 5,406, murder 491, burglary DOWN 26%
Welfare Schemes
48
๐จ CRITICAL
ODOP centres 71, Kanya Sumangala Yojana delayed
Environment
38
๐จ CRITICAL
AQI 186 (Unhealthy, improving from winter peak)
๐ Historical Trust Trend
Recovery Forecast โ May 2026
AI-predicted trust recovery scenarios (3-month horizon)
Current Score: 54 | Recovering from 48 low point (up 6 pts)
With Recommended Actions โ Recovery to 62 by May 2026
1. IMMEDIATE: Start Kanya Sumangala Yojana payments (โน2,500/mo)
2. URGENT: Maintain water treatment stability (ammonia at 1.2 mg/L)
3. HIGH: Accelerate bus fleet to 7,500 target (4,000+ delivered)
4. MEDIUM: Scale Arogya Mandirs to 500 (currently 370)
Without Intervention โ Drop to 48 by May 2026
Risk: "UP Behaal" narrative solidifies before Nagar Nigam elections
๐ Division-wise Trust Index โ Feb 2026
Based on social listening, grievance data & field surveys
Lucknow
78
Capital โ highest
Gorakhpur
74
CM hometown โ strong services
Varanasi
55
Water issues emerging
Meerut
52
Waterlogging complaints
Agra
49
Snatching + water issues
Kanpur
46
Jhansi drain issues
Prayagraj
42
Snatching + water crisis
Bareilly
38
AQI 186 + encroachment
Jhansi
34
LOWEST โ all issues converge